Deployed · cadence-pricedCertifiedPredict what's next
Lapse Risk
“Who's about to stop coming back?”
Every recent buyer, scored and ranked on how likely they are to stop coming back within a defined window.
Survival-informed (tenure-aware)
01
What you receive
Every recent buyer, ranked by lapse risk
Visual placeholderRanked list · scoredEvery recent buyer, ranked by lapse risk
Every recent buyer, scored and ranked on how likely they are to stop coming back within a defined window. Delivered to your data environment on release; the page carries the ranked, population-level shape. The top bands concentrate expected lapses — the same win-back budget works a shorter, better list.
02
The question it answers
Bring it in plain language.
- “Who's most likely to stop buying in the next 90 days?
- “Which recent buyers should win-back budget reach first?
- “Who's worth a reactivation offer right now?
What it does not do
- Explain why an individual scores high
- Claim causal or uplift effects
- Score without a specific outcome, bar, and window
- Show per-record scores in the app
Record-level behavioural events with dates, and amounts if value defines the outcome. Roughly two years of history. No modelling work on your side.
03
How it earns trust
Graded in the open, before you see it.
Proven on our published instrument. Re-certified on your data before anything releases.
Certified
Scores are certified out-of-time on your own history before anything ships — measured on records the model never saw, and refused below a data floor.
Trained on past, tested on future
The model is scored on rolling windows of your own history — trained on the past, tested on the future it hadn't seen.
Beats a baseline, and tracks reality
Ranking skill must beat a naive baseline and the scores must track observed frequency. The model earns its grade on both, or it doesn't publish.
Refused below the floor
Below a minimum of observed events, the run stops rather than certifies. A weak score is never shipped dressed as a strong one.
Rigour you can inspect is worth more than rigour you're asked to trust.
A deployed model, priced per brand on the page.See pricing →