CertifiedPredict what's next
Retention & decay curves
“How does each cohort actually decay?”
How long things last, and the exact point where you lose them.
01
What you receive
How each cohort holds, month by month
Visual placeholderCurves · by cohortHow each cohort holds, month by month
The share of each intake cohort still active at every point since they joined, shown as a curve rather than a single number. Because it tracks the whole trajectory, it shows where loss is steep, where it flattens, and how recent cohorts compare with the ones before them.
02
The question it answers
Bring it in plain language.
- “What share of our customers are still active after twelve months?
- “Are our newer cohorts retaining better than last year's?
- “Where does our retention curve flatten out?
What it does not do
Start dates per customer and records of when they left or stayed active. About two years of history. No modelling work on your side.
03
How it earns trust
Graded in the open, before you see it.
Proven on our published instrument. Re-certified on your data before anything releases.
Certified
Every curve is validated on unseen cohorts, forced to outperform your historical baselines, and certified only within the bounds your data actually proves.
Beats your history, or nothing ships
Every prediction is made out-of-sample, and the model must outperform the best forecast your own past rates could give — by more than your data's own run-to-run variation.
Checked where you'll read it
Predicted against observed at every horizon shown — not a sample of them — inside a tolerance sized to the plans the numbers feed, with bounds on every curve from your own book.
Certified to your horizon, not ours
Your history earns a certified window and the curve stops at its edge — a thinner book gets a shorter window at full strictness, never a softer test.
Rigour you can inspect is worth more than rigour you're asked to trust.
Included in every tier.See pricing →